First Goal Scorer Betting Market: What Happens if You Always Bet on the Team's Top Scorer?
Those who have some experience in football betting know there are over a thousand markets to choose from at the best online sportsbooks. Among them, you can practically bet on anything, from the minute the next goal will be scored to which players will get a card or if a penalty will be awarded at any point.Among all these markets, one of the most unique is choosing which player will score the first goal, as many think it is a good idea to frequently bet on the top scorer of each club.
Is Erling Haaland a safe bet as first scorer in games?
With the growing interest in such specific markets, people are constantly looking for tactics and exploits. Today, let's discuss one of them.
Why Choose the Top Scorer in the First Goal Scorer Market?
Choosing the top scorer of the team as your bet for the first goal seems like a no-brainer: this player scores more frequently than his teammates, likely plays as a centre forward, and generally has better odds of finding the net than anyone else on his squad.Is it really that straightforward? Not at all. The main issue here is the odds. Take, for example, a Manchester City match against a mid-table Premier League team. It's clear to most that the chances of Man City scoring the first goal are quite high. And who is likely to score that first goal? Of course, it is Erling Haaland.
Here is where things get interesting: the odds for Haaland to score first are often below 2.00 or even 1.90. From a mathematical perspective, this is not particularly advantageous. On the field, there are 19 other players (excluding goalkeepers and the top scorer himself) who can theoretically and practically score a goal. Moreover, Haaland shares the pitch with world-class talents like Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne, who can single-handedly create a goal.
Hence, betting on the top scorer for the first goal cannot be done blindly, relying solely on statistical figures.
When It Is Worth Choosing This Market
For a more thoughtful approach to using this market, consider these tips:- Look at mid-table teams with a clear top scorer - in such cases, the odds for the first goal from this player will not be "dead" because the team is not top-tier, but they are not weak either, and they score regularly.
- Pay attention to designated free kick and penalty takers - a free kick, especially a penalty, is a great chance to open the scoring. It helps to know in advance who the regular takers are for each team.
- Avoid derbies and matches between very evenly matched teams - in such games, anything can happen, and it's sometimes tough to predict the final outcome, let alone who will score the first goal.
- Always check the formation and team line-up, which is usually released about an hour before the match - the coach might bench any player, including the top scorer, or place them in an experimental position, reducing their chances of scoring the first goal.
- Use this market mid-to-late season - it is not recommended to use this betting market at the beginning of the season when teams and players are still finding their rhythm.
Examples of Absolute Chaos
To understand what happens if you constantly bet on the team's top scorer to net the first goal, let consider a few intriguing games:- Manchester City 4 - 1 Ipswich Town. This game took place in the second round of the Premier League season 2024/25. Ipswich Town was predictably overwhelmed by Haaland's team. And who scored the first goal? Ipswich Town midfielder Sammy Szmodics!
- Real Madrid 3 - 2 Almeria. This match was part of the 21st round of La Liga in the 2023/24 season. Real Madrid was still dealing with their league standings and had plenty of motivation. Despite this, by the 44th minute, they were already trailing 0-2. Despite having Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham in their squad, the first goal in the very first minute was scored by Almeria midfielder Largie Ramazani.
- Bayer Leverkusen 3 - 0 Bayern Munich. This too was in the 21st round of the Bundesliga season 2023/24. It was an outstanding season for Bayer, and you might have assumed they would net the first goal in this match. But to the surprise of those betting on either striker Jonas Hofmann or midfielder Florian Wirtz, the first goal was actually scored by home defender Josip Staniić.
These examples are provided to illustrate just how unpredictable it can be to forecast the first goal scorer, even with obvious stars on the pitch. The biggest takeaway from this is that you should not rely on the first goal scorer market as your primary betting market. There are often far more reasonable options available in pre-match or live betting.
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